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What can we expect in Arizona this year?

PHOENIX — The monsoon season officially begins on June 15 and runs until September 30. During that time, thunderstorms can often develop in the hottest part of the day, causing heavy rain, lightning, damaging winds, dust storms and flooding.

However, not all monsoons are the same. Some years our monsoon season is hot and dry and other years it is not so hot and very rainy.

So, how will Monsoon 2024 play out?

FULL COVERAGE: Monsoon 2024

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center is confident that a drier than normal monsoon will occur across Arizona this year.

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What is considered a “normal” amount of monsoon rainfall has changed a lot over the past fifty years.

Every ten years, new normals are calculated based on a 30-year moving average. Our last update came from 2021 and gave us a new average based on precipitation data from 1991 to 2020.

This new standard showed an average rainfall in Phoenix during the monsoon season of 6.5 inches of rain. That’s over half an inch drier than the previous average, which is a big difference here in the desert!

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This shows the impact of climate change on our monsoon weather in Phoenix. It will not only get hotter as our urban heat island expands, but also drier as the climate changes.

RELATED: Where to find heat relief in the Valley this summer: Cooling centers, hydration stations and more

Because there is less rain, it is also likely to be warmer this monsoon. The Climate Prediction Center has a high probability of warmer than normal temperatures in the Valley and throughout the Southwest.

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Hotter than normal conditions and drier than normal conditions usually go hand in hand.

Last summer was the hottest and driest on record.

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It’s still too early to say if 2024 will end up on this list of the hottest and driest monsoons ever, but all it really takes is one or two big storms to bring lots of rain to the valley.

So count on ABC15 to keep you ahead of the storms. We have updates on-air, online, on social media and on all our streaming channels.